This Week Could Preview Montana’s Winter

Newly updated seasonal outlook maps from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center point to a sharply divided winter across the American West, driven by what forecasters warn could become a historic El Niño.

And this week could be a perfect preview of that "split pattern", as the remnants of Hurricane Polo stream into the Southwest and the Central Rockies, with the potential to leave behind up to 3 feet of snow in the high country. While here in the Northern Rockies, we aren't expecting more than a few scattered showers.

While nothing is certain when it comes to long-range forecasts, especially with potentially record conditions, there's nothing in the latest maps suggesting a trend away from the indicators that have been present since last spring.

This El Niño means business

Meteorologists report a greater than 90% chance that strong El Niño conditions will govern weather patterns through the winter, with a 75% probability of reaching historic strength.

For the Northern Rockies, that trend typically spells a milder, less active season. The latest guidance tilts the odds toward above-average temperatures and below-normal precipitation across Montana, northern Idaho, and Wyoming, where a displaced storm track threatens to deliver lighter snowpacks and unseasonably dry stretches to lower valleys.

     ❄️ North Central Montana in particular is now showing a "below normal" chance of snow in the latest maps, at least through the first months of winter.

Want snow? Head to Colorado

Farther south, however, the rest of the Intermountain West faces a contrasting pattern. A strengthened southern Pacific jet stream is projected to steer frequent storm systems directly into the southern interior. Forecasters expect deep moisture plumes to target Utah, Colorado, northern Arizona, and New Mexico. High-elevation mountain ranges in the Central and Southern Rockies could see prolific snowfall, while valley communities navigate heavier precipitation and fluctuating snow levels.

RELATED: Missoula's "Pray for Snow Party" is Almost Here

The forecasts are still developing

NOAA emphasizes that these long-range probability maps illustrate broad three-month trends rather than individual winter storms. While a classic El Niño setup strongly favors southern storm tracks, local terrain and Arctic cold snaps can still produce severe weather outbreaks in the north.

And one thing some meteorologists are watching is the development of the polar vortex, which could still range south and bring Arctic cold to Montana.

NOAA’s official, comprehensive Winter Outlook will be issued in mid-October. For now, communities across the Mountain West are monitoring the Pacific as atmospheric signals align for a starkly contrasting season ahead.