NOAA Releases Winter Forecast for Upcoming Season in Montana

Several months ago, the Farmer's Almanac predictions for fall and winter were released and for the most part, it appeared that central Montana would be a tad warmer than normal.  The northwest would see a little more moisture than those of us East of the Divide.

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have released their U.S. Winter forecast for the upcoming season, and remarkably the models are very similar to those of the almanac for most of Montana.  But don't lose track of where your snow shovel is quite yet.

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NOAA Releases Winter Forecast for Upcoming Season in Montana

The new weather model, released on Thursday October 15, 2026, by the NOAA covers the months of December, January and February and show that for precipitation in 2026/2027, Montana will be having warmer than average temperatures.

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Above average temperatures in Central Montana could be 30% - 50% higher than normal according to the forecast models from the NOAA.  And to be quite honest, that is exciting for a guy that loves to play golf.  Or just dislike the cold.

How Big of a Shovel Will Montana Require for the Upcoming Winter Season?

Unfortunately, those warmer temperatures forecasted also mean that we probably won't see the normal precipitation we are used to in our area for snow accumulation.  Models from the NOAA show "elevated odds for drier-than-average conditions" in much of the northern mountain west.

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Also, of note in the report through the NOAA are predictions of drought conditions across much of Montana that won't see much change and could even worsen in some areas:

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For the full U.S. Winter Forecast from the NOAA, visit the website here.