NOAA Forecast Warns of Tough Montana Ski Season

Last winter wasn't exactly an epic ski season in Montana.

Warm Weather Affects Skiing Across the West

Skiers and snowboarders had a rough go of it, and it wasn't just here. Much of the West dealt with a warm, disappointing winter.

Montana saw some pretty wild temperature swings. One of the biggest surprises was watching golf courses reopen in January. At first, I figured it was just a gimmick for a few warm days. Instead, many courses stayed open for the rest of the winter, which was something I never expected to see.

Now we're getting our first look at NOAA's long-range outlook for the winter of 2026-27, and if you're a skier or snowboarder, you may not like what you're seeing.

El Niño's Impact on Montana's Snow Conditions

The forecast is based on the expectation that an El Niño pattern will develop. If that happens, Montana has increased odds of seeing warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. That's not exactly the recipe for great snow conditions.

Now, these are long-range outlooks, not guarantees. A lot can change between now and ski season, and individual storms can still make for a fantastic winter. But if the forecast verifies, Montana ski areas could be facing another challenging season.

NOAA Winter Forecast 2026-2027 — NOAA.gov

Last Winter's Experience: A Family's Skiing Journey

We got a taste of that last winter. My family actually had to drive all the way up toward Whitefish just to find decent cross-country skiing.

My son bought a ski pass last year and only ended up using it twice. After last winter, he's definitely thinking twice before buying one again this season.